New Study Predicts Year Your City’s Climate Will Change
In seven years, inhabitants of New Guinea could be living in an unfamiliar world, one with a wholly different climate. A new analysis published today in the journal Nature finds that by 2020, New Guinea’s climate will permanently enter a state never seen before, outside of the bounds of historical variability and short-term extremes.
To put it simply: The coldest year in New Guinea after 2020 will be warmer than the hottest year anyone there has ever experienced.
The global analysis also predicts that if greenhouse gases continue to be emitted at a “business as usual” rate, New York City and Washington, D.C., will experience radically altered climates in 2047 (plus or minus about five years for a margin of error). So in about 35 years, even the coldest monthly dips in temperature on the eastern seaboard will be warmer than any time in the past 150 years.
“We’re providing a new metric on when ongoing climate change will lead to environments like we have never seen before,” lead researcher Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii told reporters, “when the coldest year of the future will be warmer than the hottest year in the past.”
The study’s authors refer to this new metric as a “climate departure.”
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